Cheltenham Festival 2027 ante-post guides
Arkle Novices' Chase ante-post tips and trends
Updated 10 November 2026. Ante-post markets move a lot before March, so we refresh this guide after the key trials.
The two-mile championship for novice chasers on the opening day. Last year's Supreme winner Old Park Star heads the betting as he goes over fences for Nicky Henderson, with Dan Skelton's Kabral Du Mathan the main rival after an easy chasing debut at Perth. Both were in the frame for Cheltenham's Arkle Trial on 14 November, though the ground may keep either out. Last March Kargese won at 7/1 when the two market leaders made mistakes, a reminder that clean jumping counts for plenty here. Most of the field is still to jump a fence in public, so this market will move a lot.
Henderson has done the Supreme and Arkle double twice in the last decade with Altior and Shishkin, and Old Park Star brings the best novice hurdle form in this field. He'll be seven, like both of those. The big unknown is whether he jumps fences as well as he jumped hurdles, so his first chase run matters.
Key trends (2017-2026)
| Six-year-olds have won seven of the last ten | Altior and Shishkin won at seven and Edwardstone at eight. Nothing younger than six has won in that spell. |
| Willie Mullins has trained five of the last ten | Footpad, Duc Des Genievres, El Fabiolo, Gaelic Warrior and Kargese. Nicky Henderson has three: Altior, Shishkin and Jango Baie. |
| Favourites won six of the last ten, but not the last two | Jango Baie (5/1) in 2025 and Kargese (7/1) in 2026 both beat the market leader. |
| The last three winners were all beaten last time out | Gaelic Warrior unseated, while Jango Baie and Kargese were second. Before that, seven winners in a row had won their previous start. |
| Supreme winners have followed up for Henderson | Altior (Supreme 2016, Arkle 2017) and Shishkin (Supreme 2020, Arkle 2021) both did the double. |
| Mares have won two of the last seven | Put The Kettle On in 2020 and Kargese last March, both with the mares' allowance. |
| Every winner in the last ten was 16/1 or shorter | Put The Kettle On at 16/1 is the biggest-priced winner in that time. |
The main contenders
Won the Supreme at 15/8 last March, leading home a British one, two, three and four, and Henderson has turned Supreme winners into Arkle winners before with Altior and Shishkin.
Against: Still to jump a fence in public, and his Arkle Trial run was in doubt on ground, so his chasing debut may come later than planned.
Won a beginners' chase at Perth in October at 2/9 without coming off the bridle, and won the Grade 2 Relkeel Hurdle at Cheltenham on New Year's Day. Experienced and already off the mark over fences.
Against: A small-field Perth win tells us little, and his best hurdles form came over two and a half miles, so the Arkle's speed test is a question.
Second in the Supreme at 9/2 after a mistake at the last cost him momentum. His team say he'll go chasing once the ground eases.
Against: Yet to make his chasing debut, and waiting on softer ground could leave him short of experience by March.
Won a Grade 1 juvenile hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival in February, and Mark Walsh said afterwards he'd make a good chaser. From the yard that's won half the last ten Arkles.
Against: A setback ruled him out of last season's Triumph, and he'll be only five in March. No five-year-old has won in the last ten years.
Won the Turners at 11/1 and the Grade 1 novice hurdle at Punchestown, and Paul Townend has named him as the one he's most looking forward to over fences.
Against: His best form is over 2m5f and he's a shorter price for the three-mile Brown Advisory, so the Arkle may not be his race.
Third in the Supreme at 6/1 after being short of room, and tipped for this race in March because of his slick jumping.
Against: Missed the Molyneux Hurdle at Aintree on 7 November, and it isn't clear yet whether he goes chasing or stays over hurdles.
Prices are a rough guide to the ante-post market when this guide was updated, not an offer.
What the tipsters say
- William Hill News: Makes Old Park Star its Arkle pick at 3/1, saying the Supreme winner fits the profile of past winners and has the Arkle as his main aim.
- Racing Post (Tom Park): Steered clear of Kabral Du Mathan at 4/6 for the Arkle Trial. Gave him the fitness edge but thought Old Park Star may have the higher ceiling.
- Oddschecker: Kabral Du Mathan drew roughly a fifth of all its Cheltenham ante-post bets over a 30-day spell after Perth.
- Sporting Life (Andrew Asquith): Tipped Mydaddypaddy in March, liking his jumping and seeing him as a chaser in the making after he was hampered in the Supreme.
- OLBG: Points out that the last three winners were all beaten last time out, which weakens an old trend.
Key trials to watch
- Arkle Trial Novices' Chase, Cheltenham (14 November 2026)
- Henry VIII Novices' Chase, Sandown (Early December)
- Racing Post Novice Chase, Leopardstown (26 December)
- Wayward Lad Novices' Chase, Kempton (27 December)
- Irish Arkle Novice Chase, Leopardstown (Dublin Racing Festival) (Early February)
More Cheltenham Festival 2027 guides
- Champion HurdleOur pick: Lossiemouth
- Queen Mother Champion ChaseOur pick: Il Etait Temps
- Stayers' HurdleOur pick: Teahupoo
- Cheltenham Gold CupOur pick: Jango Baie
- Brown Advisory Novices' ChaseOur pick: King Rasko Grey
- Ryanair ChaseOur pick: Heart Wood
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FAQs
- What is Pat's NAPs' ante-post pick for the Arkle Novices' Chase?
- Old Park Star. Henderson has done the Supreme and Arkle double twice in the last decade with Altior and Shishkin, and Old Park Star brings the best novice hurdle form in this field. He'll be seven, like both of those. The big unknown is whether he jumps fences as well as he jumped hurdles, so his first chase run matters.
- What are the key Arkle Novices' Chase trends?
- Six-year-olds have won seven of the last ten. Willie Mullins has trained five of the last ten. Favourites won six of the last ten, but not the last two.
- When is the Arkle Novices' Chase?
- Tuesday 16 March 2027, over 2m. The Cheltenham Festival 2027 runs Tuesday 16 to Friday 19 March 2027.
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